Unit 1 · Level 2 · Whale watching
Who moves markets
On a public blockchain, every wallet's balance is visible, and a few wallets are enormous. Roughly 2% of Bitcoin addresses control the large majority of the supply. When a wallet that size moves, it can shift prices; when yours moves, the market doesn't blink. Whale watching is the art of tracking the wallets big enough to matter.
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What you get asked
In on-chain analysis, a 'whale' is...
Size relative to the market is what defines a whale. Old wallets and exchange wallets can be whales, but the defining trait is enough weight to make waves.
Why is 'whale size' different for every asset?
€10M sold into Bitcoin's deep markets barely registers; €500k dumped on a tiny token can crater it 50%. Whale size is always relative to liquidity.
Match each holder to their likely market impact
The same euro amount can be plankton in one market and a whale in another. And the biggest wallets of all are often custodians, not traders.
A €500k position is nothing in Bitcoin but enormous in a micro-cap token, because whale impact is measured against the market's ___.
Thin order books amplify every large trade. Always ask: how much money would it take to move THIS market 10%?
You spot a wallet holding 8% of a small token's supply. What's the smartest takeaway?
Concentration is a risk factor, not a verdict. You don't know who they are or what they'll do, but you DO know one decision could hit the price hard. 🐜
The rest of this unit
Big wallets leave big footprints. Learn to read them without being fooled.