Unit 1 · Level 2 · Whale watching
Whale watching: review
Four tools now in your kit: whale size is relative to liquidity, exchange flows hint at intent (with honest failure modes), accumulation shows up as buy-withdraw-sleep, and cost basis reveals the profit or pain behind a position. One thread runs through all of them: on-chain data shows you WHAT happened, never WHY. The why is your job.
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What you get asked
Which wallet is the biggest whale RISK to its market?
Concentration meets thin liquidity. That's the dangerous combination. €1M in Bitcoin's ocean is a minnow; 10% of a puddle is a whale.
Match each on-chain observation to its textbook first reading
Every one of these is a hypothesis, not a verdict. The textbook reading is where your investigation starts, not where it ends.
A big exchange inflow looked like a whale dump but was really the exchange moving its own funds: a classic ___ reshuffle false alarm.
The most common flow false-positive there is. Before reacting to any big transfer, ask whether both ends might belong to the same entity.
Market price is €40k; realized price is €48k. The average holder is...
Paid ~€48k on average, worth €40k now, a loss of 8k/48k ≈ 17%. Below realized price is historically rare, painful territory.
The single biggest mistake a new whale watcher makes?
Every seasoned analyst has been burned by a 'dump incoming' that was a custody shuffle. Flows generate questions; only context generates answers. 🐜
The rest of this unit
Big wallets leave big footprints. Learn to read them without being fooled.