Unit 3 · Level 3 · Commodities & gold
Unit review: real stuff
Supply shocks (1973 oil, 2022 gas) deliver inflation no rate hike can print away. Gold is 5,000 years of trust with zero coupons: brilliant in some storms, dead money for decades in others, and ruled by real rates. Oil hides in every price as the world's input cost. And commodity booms finance the very supply that busts them.
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What you get asked
Review round: match the event to what it taught
Four dates, one theme: the physical world moves in shocks and cycles that financial models keep underestimating.
Central banks struggle with supply shocks because…
Rate hikes cool spending; they don't drill wells or ship gas. Against a supply shock, the central bank can only squeeze demand and hope.
Gold shines most when ___ rates fall, not simply whenever inflation is high.
2022 proved it: 9% inflation, flat gold, because real yields ROSE. Gold's true rival is the inflation-adjusted return on bonds.
Review: order the commodity cycle from boom to next boom
The loop closes on itself: today's bust starves tomorrow's supply, and the cycle turns again, always on a multi-year delay.
The through-line of this unit:
Central banks steer money, but wheat, watts and barrels obey geology and time. Macro literacy means watching both worlds. 🐜
The rest of this unit
Oil, gas, copper, gold: the real stuff that feeds inflation and humbles forecasters.