Unit 4 · Level 1 · Keeping It Safe
What actually moves prices
The counterintuitive part: markets move on SURPRISES, not news itself. If everyone expects Apple to report great earnings and it reports great earnings, the price may not move at all. It was 'priced in'. Prices move when reality differs from expectation.
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What you get asked
A company reports record profits, and the stock FALLS 8%. What most likely happened?
'Good' vs 'expected' is the only comparison that matters. This explains 90% of the 'why did it drop on good news?!' confusion.
Match the force to what it moves most
Different assets have different weather. Stocks answer to earnings and rates; crypto answers to liquidity, regulation and narrative.
When expected news happens, traders say it was already ___ in.
The market is a machine that trades the future, not the present. By the time news is on TV, the price mostly reflects it.
Why do central bank interest-rate decisions move BOTH stocks and crypto?
When money is cheap, it flows into risk assets as people reach for returns. When it's expensive, safety pays again and money flows out. This single mechanism explains years of market cycles, including crypto's.
Practical takeaway: there's a big scheduled news event tomorrow (Fed decision, big earnings). A beginner should…
Or simply stay out until it passes. Pros call event-gambling 'coin-flipping with slippage'. Checking an economic calendar takes 30 seconds and prevents the classic 'why did everything explode at 20:00?!' surprise. 🐜
The rest of this unit
Custody, wallets, broker protection, scams, and what actually moves prices.