Unit 2 · Level 2 · Journaling
Your expectancy
Expectancy is the average result of one of YOUR trades, computed from YOUR journal: (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). Positive means your process makes money over time; negative means it bleeds, no matter how thrilling the wins feel. It's the difference between 'I feel like I'm doing well' and knowing.
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What you get asked
Your journal after 50 trades: 40% winners averaging +€150, 60% losers averaging −€50. Expectancy per trade, in €?
0.4 × 150 = €60 expected from wins; 0.6 × 50 = €30 expected to losses. 60 − 30 = €30 per trade: a losing win rate, a winning system.
Match each ingredient to what it measures
Four numbers your journal already contains. No guru, backtest, or influencer required: just your own four columns, added up.
That trader wins only 40% of the time. Why are they still profitable?
Win rate alone is a vanity metric. Losing often but small while winning rarely but big is how many excellent trend traders make their living.
Another journal: 55% winners averaging +€80, 45% losers averaging −€100. Expectancy per trade, in €?
0.55 × 80 = €44; 0.45 × 100 = €45. 44 − 45 = −€1 per trade. Wins MOST of the time, loses money: the mirror image of the last trader.
How many journaled trades before your expectancy number means much?
Small samples lie in both directions, so treat early numbers as sketches, not verdicts. Keep logging, and the picture sharpens with every row. 🐜
The rest of this unit
Memory spins, data doesn't. Turn your trades into numbers you can fix.