Unit 3 · Level 3 · The long-game identity
Regret minimization
Before founding Amazon, Jeff Bezos says he used a "regret minimization framework": imagine yourself years from now, looking back: which choice would you regret? Traders can borrow it with one twist: you will NOT know the outcome in advance, so the only thing you can minimize regret about is the decision. "I risked 1% on a setup I'd tested" survives any outcome. "I put half my savings in because a stranger online was sure" survives none.
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What you get asked
What makes a trading decision "defensible in 10 years"?
Outcomes aren't up to you; reasoning and sizing are. Future-you audits the inputs, because the inputs were the only thing you ever controlled.
A trade loses €150 after you followed every rule. A different trade wins €900 on a drunken 3am impulse. Which one should future-you regret?
Unit 2's win review, now as identity: the paid mistake is the expensive one. Ten-year-you doesn't see the €900; they see the habit it planted.
Run the ten-year test on a tempting trade, in order
The one-sentence test is brutal in the best way: 'a guru was sure' and 'I couldn't stand missing it' collapse the moment they're written down.
Regret minimization judges decisions with the information you had ___, never with the outcome that followed.
Judging by outcomes is hindsight bias wearing a judge's robe. The only fair court reconstructs what you actually knew at the moment you clicked.
Why does the ten-year lens naturally shrink position sizes on shaky ideas?
Size is a confession of confidence. When the reasoning wouldn't survive future-you's audit, your hands get honest before your mind does, and the size drops on its own. 🐜
The rest of this unit
Think in hundreds of trades, detach from the P&L, and make peace with doing nothing.