Unit 4 · Level 1 · Know thyself
Boss: Demon hunter
Tilt lights, risk personality, and an honest audit: meet the trader in the mirror.
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What you get asked
Final check: match the demon to its whisper
The same four whispers from Unit 1, and the same defense: hear them, name them, and let your written rules answer.
€10,000 falls 20%, then gains 20%. How many € do you end with?
−20% leaves €8,000; +20% of €8,000 adds €1,600 → €9,600. Losses need bigger gains to undo. Loss aversion has real math underneath it.
You only follow accounts that agree your coin will 10x, and 'research' means rereading them. Which bias?
A hand-built echo chamber. The cure from Unit 2: hunt disconfirming evidence until the bear case genuinely worries you.
A guru shows a 4-for-4 streak of public calls. Before paying for the premium group, remember…
Coin flips alone give 1 in 16 accounts a perfect 4-streak, and the failures deleted. Survivorship builds prophets on schedule.
Mid-session: your sizes have doubled, you're clicking fast, and one loss 'must' be won back now. The move?
Three tilt lights at once. The rule written by calm-you exists for exactly this minute. Negotiating with it IS the tilt.
The antidote to a seductive story is the cohort's ___ rate.
Stories say 'imagine winning'; base rates say 'here's how everyone who tried actually did.' You've named the demons, mapped the biases, and learned to check the cohort. Hunt well. 🐜
The rest of this unit
Tilt lights, risk personality, and an honest audit: meet the trader in the mirror.