Unit 2 · Level 3 · On-chain valuation
Valuation check
Realized cap remembers what holders paid. MVRV compares that memory to today's price. NUPL turns the gap into an emotional thermometer, and HODL waves sort the supply by conviction. Four views of one idea: the blockchain records cost basis, and cost basis shapes behaviour. Prove you can read it.
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What you get asked
Realized cap differs from market cap because it…
That single design choice turns a price chart into a cost-basis ledger: the foundation of MVRV, NUPL and the rest.
Market cap is €600B and realized cap is €500B. What is MVRV? (one decimal)
600 ÷ 500 = 1.2. Holders are modestly in profit, nowhere near historical extremes in either direction.
Match each metric to what it tells you
One family, four lenses. They share DNA, which also means they can all mislead together if the cost-basis assumption breaks.
MVRV below ___ means the average holder is underwater, historically the deepest bear-market territory.
Below 1, market cap sits under realized cap: aggregate paper losses. Late 2018 and mid-2022 both lived there.
The recurring honest caveat across ALL this unit's valuation metrics is…
Four cycles of history is a thin book to bet on. Use these gauges to locate yourself in the cycle, and hold the conclusions loosely. 🐜
The rest of this unit
The blockchain remembers what everyone paid. Turn that memory into valuation gauges.