Unit 2 · Level 2 · Labels & cohorts
Labels & cohorts: review
This unit turned the blockchain from a wall of addresses into a cast of characters: exchanges, market makers, funds, foundations, insiders, old hands and fresh money. Two rules to keep: WHO is moving changes what a move means, and every 'who' is a probabilistic guess. Analysis built on labels inherits the labels' error bars.
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What you get asked
A labeled market maker and a labeled VC fund each deposit €30M to exchanges. Why might analysts shrug at the first but study the second?
Identity gives flow its meaning. Plumbing versus positioning: same €30M, opposite significance.
A team wallet holds 2,000,000 tokens of a 10,000,000 total supply. What percentage of the supply do insiders control?
2M ÷ 10M = 20%. One-fifth of the supply behind one door, exactly the kind of concentration you'd want to know about before it unlocks.
Match each concept from this unit to its one-line essence
Labels tell you who, cohorts tell you how patient, insider flows tell you what the team does. Pitfalls remind you all three can lie.
Late in a mania, supply held by coins under 6 months old swells while ___ holders quietly distribute into strength.
The cohort handoff (old hands selling to new arrivals) is the on-chain signature of a maturing rally, visible in HODL waves for every past cycle.
The through-line of this whole unit: what turns raw flow data into insight?
A transfer means nothing until you know the actor, and you never know the actor with certainty. Identity plus humility: that's the whole game. 🐜
The rest of this unit
Carefully turning anonymous addresses into funds, foundations and holder tribes.