Unit 1 · Level 3 · Exchange & stablecoin flows
Flow check
You've learned to read the tides: exchange balances as potential sell supply, inflow spikes as yellow flags needing a source check, stablecoin minting as capital arriving, and exchange stablecoins as loaded buying power. The golden thread: flows show positioning and capacity, never certainty. Time to test it.
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What you get asked
Coins have been flowing OFF exchanges for months. The most defensible conclusion is…
Falling exchange balances tighten the supply side: that's all. ETF custody, cold storage and long-term holding all produce the same chart.
A 20,000 BTC inflow just hit your dashboard. Order your response
The checklist from lesson two: most alarms die at 'internal shuffle'. Panic first, verify never: that's the tourist's method, not yours.
Sustained stablecoin ___ marked 2022's bear market, as capital redeemed back to bank accounts.
Burning = redemption = dollars leaving crypto. The cash-pile gauge fell for months while prices ground lower.
Which combination is the textbook BULLISH flow setup?
Sell supply thinning while loaded buying power grows: the strongest lean flow data can give. Still a lean, not a promise.
The single most important habit this unit tried to build is…
Flows are footprints. Footprints have owners, and owners have reasons: custody, collateral, plumbing, or genuine selling. Identify before you interpret. 🐜
The rest of this unit
Follow the money on and off exchanges. Where coins sit tells you what holders plan.