Unit 4 · Level 3 · Synthesis
Boss: The on-chain analyst
Combine flows, valuation and leverage into one honest thesis, and know when to distrust it.
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What you get asked
The foundational fact that makes ALL on-chain analysis possible is that public blockchains…
Radical transparency of transactions (not identities) is the raw material. Everything from explorer lookups to MVRV is built on that open ledger.
A dormant whale wallet moves 10,000 BTC. Before drawing ANY conclusion, the analyst first checks…
Destination and context before interpretation: the discipline that runs from basic wallet-watching through every flow metric in this course.
Match each metric family to what it reveals
The full toolkit in one grid. Independent families agreeing is a thesis; one family alone is a hint.
Market cap is €900B, realized cap is €600B. What is MVRV? (one decimal)
900 ÷ 600 = 1.5, so holders sit on solid but not extreme profits. Comfortably mid-cycle territory by historical zones.
Coins are flooding ONTO exchanges, stablecoins are burning, funding is extremely positive and MVRV is above 3. This confluence suggests…
Every family leans the same direction: supply staged to sell, dry powder shrinking, leverage crowded, holders in extreme profit. Maximum caution, never a scheduled crash.
The graduate analyst's creed, in one line, is…
Facts, then assumptions, then the ocean over it all, with position sizing as the final safety net. You've earned the explorer's badge, analyst. 🐜
The rest of this unit
Combine flows, valuation and leverage into one honest thesis, and know when to distrust it.